Analytics firm Juniper Research published a report that says the video games market will grow to over $200 billion in value in 2023. This is up from the $155 billion expected this year. Mobile and cloud gaming will be the biggest growth drivers.

Titled “Video Games: Industry Trends, Monetisation Strategies & Market Size 2020-2025,” the report projects market-wide shift towards recurring revenue from in-game monetisation and subscription fees. The purchase revenue will decline by 5% over the next five years.

Further breaking it down, cloud gaming and other subscriptions services will grow at an average rate of 9% per year, generating more than $8 billion of revenue in 2023. Report co-author James Moar specifies that “At current gaming subscription prices, it will take an average of ten months of a subscription payment to cover the retail cost of a single AAA game. The value of these platforms lies in keeping players within an ecosystem; ensuring that revenue across multiple games is captured by a single platform.”

Mobile will be the only platform to see a net increase in games installs between 2020 and 2023. This is due to gamers embracing subscription services like EA Access, Google Stadia and Xbox Gamepass and departing from standalone purchases. 99% of mobile game downloads in the next three years will be free-to-play.

The free-to-play model will also dominate PC accounting for over 50% of PC game installs. In 2023, PC games will generate around $32 billion in revenue from in-game purchases.