Various analysts have been sharing their sales forecasts for the PlayStation 5 Pro since its official announcement. Here is some fresh data from Niko Partners.
According to Niko Partners, the PlayStation 5 Pro will surpass 10 million units sold, accounting for around 10% of the console’s lifetime sales.
For comparison, Ampere Analysis estimated that the PS5 Pro would sell 12.8 million units by 2029. This forecast is based on the fact that the PS4 Pro accounted for 12% of PlayStation 4’s lifetime sales, with analysts expecting a similar dynamic for the new device.
Niko Parnters expects “increased geographic expansion” for the PS5 Pro compared to the PS4 Pro, especially with regions like Asia and the Middle East seeing a “rising middle class willing to invest in high-end entertainment.”
PlayStation is the leading console brand by market share in Asia, excluding Japan, and the MENA region. Although the Nintendo Switch accounts for over 60% of console hardware sales in Japan, the country leads in absolute PS5 units sold in Asia (over 6 million as of September 2024).
Niko Partners believes that the PS5 Pro is designed to achieve the following goals for Sony:
- Making premium hardware that is touted as the most technologically advanced console in the market, especially given the lack of a similar upgrade from Xbox and the fact that the next Nintendo device is expected to be less than powerful than the base PS5;
- Increase ARPU (average revenue per user) and profit margins across its console business.
Speaking of the latter, Niko Partners noted that Sony, like other platform holders, has faced a slowdown in the growth of its install base. That’s why the company focuses on high-end hardware, digital content, as well as subscription and other online services.
The share of digital game sales on PlayStation reached 70% in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2024, increasing to 80% in the last quarter. Not only does digital content have higher margins, it also “reduces the opportunity for second-hand game sales, enhancing profitability.”
According to Niko Partners, the PS5 Pro targets early adopters for the PS5 and “price insensitive gamers on other current or last generation consoles looking for higher fidelity experiences.” The base PS5 will remain the main entry point for most users, but the analysts don’t expect Sony to decrease its hardware price this year or in the first half of 2025.